Iowa, New Hampshire, and Beyond: An Overview

By Kris Krause

I’m going to spend the bulk of this article digesting everything that has happened since Iowa, as well as what will be happening in the near future. At this time, I do not support any one candidate. I have my preferences, of course, but I don’t think I’ll truly make up my mind until I cast my vote. That being said, I’m keeping the tone of this piece as objective as I can humanly make it, to provide an overview of what’s going on. If you’re looking for a little bit of spin, and a candidate specific outlook on what’s happened so far, just sit tight. Fellow UCF College Democrats Ariel Dansky, Miki Hirama, and Chris Chambers will be posting their views as a Clinton supporter, an Edwards supporter, and an Obama supporter, respectively, in the next few days.

The 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination Process is (finally) officially underway, after almost an entire year of speculation, debates, and polls. All of which, have come across as increasingly irrelevant now that the results are in from both Iowa and New Hampshire.
The belief coming into Iowa was that Hillary Clinton would be unbeatable. She was a machine. She had name recognition. She could even boast better family values than a good deal of the Republican front runners. But in Iowa, Clinton finished not second, but third, behind Barrack Obama and John Edwards.

Then, the media hailed this as the rise of Obama. They called him a true front-runner, and then quickly began to ask how and why Clinton fell apart so soon. Articles were being written about the race becoming a two man race between Obama and Edwards. I even saw one article that attempted to paint Obama as Bill Clinton’s true successor. Polls in New Hampshire showed Obama beating Clinton by roughly 10 percentage points!

But last night, Hillary Clinton earned 39% of the vote, beating out Barrack Obama’s 36%. But both Clinton and Obama received 9 delegates from New Hampshire because their numbers were so close and New Hampshire does not have a winner take all system. So while it is a victory for Clinton, and an important one, Obama technically still leads her by one delegate. I only bring this up because Obama’s loss last night, from my perspective, wasn’t exactly a loss. It just wasn’t a gain, which is something he definitely will need to establish in the coming contests.

For us Democrats, Nevada officially comes next, on January 19^th. On January 15^th, Michigan will hold its primary, but the only top Democrat on the ballot is Hillary Clinton. Any write in votes for Obama, Edwards, or Richardson won’t count because none of those candidates filed the necessary paper work in Michigan. The only real option is to vote uncommitted.

Like Iowa, Nevada holds a caucus. As for what will happen in Nevada? It’s far too early and far too close for anyone to make a sound call. Obama, today, won the endorsement of a key labor union in Nevada. This comes as a blow to John Edwards, who was trying to position himself as the representative for unions. Edwards’ best chance probably lies a week after Nevada, in South Carolina, which is his home state and the only state he won in the 2004 nomination process.

Unfortunately, it’s too early to know what kind of an impact Florida will have on the nomination. Right now, our delegates have been stripped of their ability to vote. Whether or not the DNC stays strong to the current ruling, remains to be seen. But it is being challenged in court, and the execution of baring these states’ delegates or preventing them from voting may be a case of easier said than done. Like all things with this nomination process, a wait and see attitude must be applied.

But regardless of if Florida’s delegates will be able to vote at the convention, the results out of Florida will make the news. A big turnout in Florida could also have an affect on how 2012’s nomination process runs. A lot of attention has been given to removing the extra influence Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina receive in the current system.

So for those of you who wonder if it pays to vote on January, I can’t tell you that it will. But I can tell you, that there is a chance that our primary could be the beginning of something new. A new way for the nomination process to take place, some change in American politics. There is no doubt that change is the theme among Democrats this year. America needs change in a variety of areas, in a many shapes and forms. But this type of change, change in the nomination process, is a kind of change that only Florida can ignite in this country if we give our primary a strong showing. Just something to keep in mind as well all closely watch Nevada and South Carolina vote, and then get our own turn.

After the Florida Primary, I’ll take a closer look at the upcoming Super Tuesday. Until then, enjoy all of the speculation and polls the media will be running wild with.