Hillary Clinton: Victory in New Hampshire

By Ariel Dansky

I find it interesting that anti-Hillary people often dismiss her as the “status quo” candidate, when in fact she is upsetting the status quo by being a woman running for the presidency. When I tell people I’m a Hillary Clinton supporter, I receive a varying degree of reactions, many of them not the most agreeable. Indeed, of the three front running democratic candidates, Hillary is the most polarizing. On one hand, she has the die hard support of many women, older people, and those nostalgic of her husband’s administration; on the other hand, the younger generation, our generation, is mostly opposed to Hillary and largely in favor of Barack Obama (this may explain why I am among the select few Hillary supporters in College Democrats). This is not to say that I do not support Barack Obama – in fact, I think that all three of the front running democratic candidates (Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama) are great candidates. However, I believe that at this time, Hillary Clinton is the one who is most ready to run our country.

The Iowa caucus was a disappointing loss for Hillary – she came in not second, but third, with Edwards just a few percentage points ahead. Apparently, Obama’s victory was due to the large amount of independent and younger voters that came out to caucus. In fact, he even obtained the support of a large number of women voters – those which were expected to support Hillary. In all, the Iowa caucus was a significant blow to the Clinton campaign; if she was to have any chance of being the democratic presidential candidate, she would need to come back for the win in New Hampshire.

During the time between the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, two events occurred which may have given Hillary the boost she needed to come out on top. First, at the New Hampshire Democratic debate, Edwards and Obama attacked Hillary on the “change” issue, comparing Hillary to the “status quo” which “attacks” any time one speaks out about change. In response, Hillary stated that “making change is not about what you believe, it is not about a speech you make, it is about working hard.” In addition, after reminding the audience that she helped give seven thousand kids in New Hampshire healthcare, she reaffirmed, “I want to make change, I have already made change, and I will continue to make change. I’m not just running on a promise of change, I’m running on thirty-five years of change.” Wow. That’s a lot of change. Clearly, Hillary is the most experienced candidate in the running, and she used that fact to her advantage in the debate. Second, during a rare moment at a New Hampshire restaurant, Hillary expressed emotion about her campaign. For the first time, she seemed to have let her guard down and was speaking from the heart. Her display of emotion was quite humanizing, and she won the sympathy of New Hampshire voters (particularly women).

Hillary’s victory at the New Hampshire primary defied all expectations; according to the closing polls, Obama was in the lead by a whopping nine points. Newscasters talked of another expected victory for Barack Obama, speculating on a future with Obama as the next president. However, Hillary came back for a surprising win in New Hampshire, ranking first at 39%, three percentage points higher than Obama. Although Hillary’s victory was not significant in terms of percentage points, it was just what she needed to revive her campaign.

Now that she has won New Hampshire, things look bright for Hillary. With upcoming primaries in Nevada and South Carolina, the race goes on. Now that she has proved herself in New Hampshire, things look promising for her campaign. Who knows? In less than a year, we may have our first female president!

Barack Obama: What’s the Matter with New Hampshire?

By Christopher Chambers

So, I’ve been saving my righteous indignation about how the pollsters got it so wrong until I’ve medicated myself with a cooling off period. Seriously, I can quote you at least a dozen polls, all from well respected official news outlets like ABC, CBS, and Rasmussen that showed Obama winning the nation’s first primary by a handy margin. But then life happened.

Clinton gave her audience what they most wanted to see. When responding to an innocuous question about “How she does it,” she choked up on her response. I hate to admit it but this is what the base is looking for. They want to see Clinton’s human side. We all know it’s there – from those around her she’s a generally likable person with a quick wit. Fortunately for us though, she’s also a cold and calculating politician who isn’t very “likable” (whatever the hell that means).

Barack Obama, although he narrowly lost the NH primary, has been gaining momentum since … well since 2004. He first came into the national scene when he was picked by the Democratic Presidential nominee John Kerry to deliver a keynote address to the nation during primetime. With his powerful delivery and eloquent oration, Obama instantly became a person to keep an eye out for among the Democratic circles. Now, post his victory in the nation’s first caucus, he’s picked up several key endorsements – former presidential candidate John Kerry, who has brings along his massive list of potential donors from 2004 as well as a slight endorsement to the Democratic regulars, as if to say “it’s okay to get behind Obama, he’s actually the better candidate than a Clinton,” as well as the Governor Napolitano of Arizona and the 450,000 strong union that represents culinary workers in Nevada.

I could write for pages about anomalies in polling in New Hampshire or the different key demographics that Barack Obama appeals to, or how much momentum he has going into the Nevada Caucus (Jan. 19th), the South Carolina primary (Jan. 26th), and Super Tuesday (Feb. 5th). But I won’t. Well, at least not now. This, my friends, is what we call a tease.

Feel free to look me up.

P.S. In fairness, I feel I must disclose something. I’m the South Florida Deputy Field Coordinator for the Students for Barack Obama. However, I am no ideologue. I am capable of rational thought. Having said this, I firmly believe, for a number of reasons, that Barack Obama is the best candidate in the Democratic field and it’s not just because I’m with a segment of his campaign.

Iowa, New Hampshire, and Beyond: An Overview

By Kris Krause

I’m going to spend the bulk of this article digesting everything that has happened since Iowa, as well as what will be happening in the near future. At this time, I do not support any one candidate. I have my preferences, of course, but I don’t think I’ll truly make up my mind until I cast my vote. That being said, I’m keeping the tone of this piece as objective as I can humanly make it, to provide an overview of what’s going on. If you’re looking for a little bit of spin, and a candidate specific outlook on what’s happened so far, just sit tight. Fellow UCF College Democrats Ariel Dansky, Miki Hirama, and Chris Chambers will be posting their views as a Clinton supporter, an Edwards supporter, and an Obama supporter, respectively, in the next few days.

The 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination Process is (finally) officially underway, after almost an entire year of speculation, debates, and polls. All of which, have come across as increasingly irrelevant now that the results are in from both Iowa and New Hampshire.
The belief coming into Iowa was that Hillary Clinton would be unbeatable. She was a machine. She had name recognition. She could even boast better family values than a good deal of the Republican front runners. But in Iowa, Clinton finished not second, but third, behind Barrack Obama and John Edwards.

Then, the media hailed this as the rise of Obama. They called him a true front-runner, and then quickly began to ask how and why Clinton fell apart so soon. Articles were being written about the race becoming a two man race between Obama and Edwards. I even saw one article that attempted to paint Obama as Bill Clinton’s true successor. Polls in New Hampshire showed Obama beating Clinton by roughly 10 percentage points!

But last night, Hillary Clinton earned 39% of the vote, beating out Barrack Obama’s 36%. But both Clinton and Obama received 9 delegates from New Hampshire because their numbers were so close and New Hampshire does not have a winner take all system. So while it is a victory for Clinton, and an important one, Obama technically still leads her by one delegate. I only bring this up because Obama’s loss last night, from my perspective, wasn’t exactly a loss. It just wasn’t a gain, which is something he definitely will need to establish in the coming contests.

For us Democrats, Nevada officially comes next, on January 19^th. On January 15^th, Michigan will hold its primary, but the only top Democrat on the ballot is Hillary Clinton. Any write in votes for Obama, Edwards, or Richardson won’t count because none of those candidates filed the necessary paper work in Michigan. The only real option is to vote uncommitted.

Like Iowa, Nevada holds a caucus. As for what will happen in Nevada? It’s far too early and far too close for anyone to make a sound call. Obama, today, won the endorsement of a key labor union in Nevada. This comes as a blow to John Edwards, who was trying to position himself as the representative for unions. Edwards’ best chance probably lies a week after Nevada, in South Carolina, which is his home state and the only state he won in the 2004 nomination process.

Unfortunately, it’s too early to know what kind of an impact Florida will have on the nomination. Right now, our delegates have been stripped of their ability to vote. Whether or not the DNC stays strong to the current ruling, remains to be seen. But it is being challenged in court, and the execution of baring these states’ delegates or preventing them from voting may be a case of easier said than done. Like all things with this nomination process, a wait and see attitude must be applied.

But regardless of if Florida’s delegates will be able to vote at the convention, the results out of Florida will make the news. A big turnout in Florida could also have an affect on how 2012’s nomination process runs. A lot of attention has been given to removing the extra influence Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina receive in the current system.

So for those of you who wonder if it pays to vote on January, I can’t tell you that it will. But I can tell you, that there is a chance that our primary could be the beginning of something new. A new way for the nomination process to take place, some change in American politics. There is no doubt that change is the theme among Democrats this year. America needs change in a variety of areas, in a many shapes and forms. But this type of change, change in the nomination process, is a kind of change that only Florida can ignite in this country if we give our primary a strong showing. Just something to keep in mind as well all closely watch Nevada and South Carolina vote, and then get our own turn.

After the Florida Primary, I’ll take a closer look at the upcoming Super Tuesday. Until then, enjoy all of the speculation and polls the media will be running wild with.